PSA2016: The 25th Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association

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Inherent Complexity: a problem for Statistical Model Evaluation

This paper investigates a problem for statistical model evaluation, in particular for curve fitting: by employing a different family of curves we can fit a scatter plot almost perfectly at minor costs in terms of model complexity. The problem is resolved by an appeal to prior probabilities. This leads to some general lessons about how to approach model evaluation.

Author Information:

Jan-Willem Romeijn    
Faculty of Philosophy
University of Groningen

 

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